Long-Term Outlook — SPY Monthly

Long-Term Market Outlook — SPY Monthly

Monthly trend analysis using SPY 3MA/10MA direction, PPO momentum, equal-weight vs cap-weight breadth, yield curve, and MFI overlay. All data from Yahoo Finance & FRED. Adjust the date range — all charts and indicators update instantly.

Fetching SPY monthly data and computing indicators…

View range

From

→

— · — months

Show crises

Overall Verdict

—

Direction

—

Momentum (PPO)

—

RSI12

—

Breadth (EW/CW)

—

Equal-weight vs cap-weight trend — rising = healthy participation

S1 — 3-Month MA

First Support

—

Price above S1 = short-term trend intact

S2 — Prior Month Low

Swing Support

—

Break below S2 signals monthly trend change

S3 — 10-Month MA

Major Support

—

Break below S3 = confirmed long-term bearish

S&P 500 / SPY — Price with 3MA & 10MA (spliced 1993)

PPO — MA Separation % (Momentum)

RSI12 — Monthly Momentum (Wilder)

Market Breadth — Equal-Weight vs Cap-Weight

Rising = broad participation. Falling = narrowing leadership (warning).

10-2 Year Yield Curve (FRED T10Y2Y)

— Inversion precedes market stress by 6–18 months

MFI vs SPY — Cross-System Confirmation

MFI measures systemic fragility (credit, macro, valuation). Rising MFI while SPY trend weakens = pre-crash confirmation pattern.

Current Readings (latest month)

S&P / SPY Close—

3-Month MA—

10-Month MA—

MA3 vs MA10—

PPO—

RSI12—

10-2 Yield Spread—

Yield Curve State—

Indicator Ranges (selected window)

PPO Min—

PPO Max—

PPO Avg—

RSI12 Min—

RSI12 Max—

RSI12 Avg—

SPY High (window)—

SPY Low (window)—

Sources Yahoo Finance · FRED